Strength of Schedule

I was going to post this as a comment under Hauser's post, but I decided to get my first post out of the way and expound on my thoughts, so JD, start booking that ticket.

While at training in Cleveland, I met a girl who attended the University of Florida. She immediately informed me that Florida had "amazing academics and athletics." I nodded my head, while simultaneously trying to control my gag reflux. After she started throwing out numbers I politely reminded her that not only did BYU's accounting school dominate Florida's, but that BYU's basketball AND football team finished better than Florida did last year. She shut up pretty quick after that. But the next day she had a friend of hers debate me about how Florida is sooooooooooooo sick. After reminding them that I'm don't have a vote on the polls, they just decided to throw out the whole strength of conference bull shiz.

That confrontation coupled with Hauser's post got me to thinking about the legitimacy of that claim. First of all there is a cyclical component to conferences that you just can't ignore. An entire conference can be soft but it can avoid expose by the fact that 2/3 or more of their games are against common opponents. And the other side of the argument is that many teams in the BCS conference schedule play terrible teams for their nonconference games.

Nebraska for example scheduled Western Michigan, San Jose State, and New Mexico State for their nonconference opponents. Last year Nebraska won 5 games. Now are you telling me that if BYU or another good nonBCS team couldn't beat those three teams and win 2 out of 9 games against the Big XII?

Another example: Louisville. Everyone was so high on them. They won 6 games last year, and played Murray State, Middle Tennessee, and Utah (whom they lost to by the way). Now I'm positive that BYU could beat those 3 teams and win 3 more games in 9 chances against the Big East.

How about another: Iowa. They have scheduled Maine, Florida International, and mighty Iowa State.

Okay one more: Indiana. Western Kentucky, Murray State, Ball State, and Central Michigan.

Since I know your enjoying this I'll share my favorite: Kentucky. They finished well with 8 wins. And they play the likes of Norfolk State, Middle Tennessee, and Western Kentucky. Okay, and then they split with the games in the SEC that included Ole' Miss and Vanderbilt.

Ohh, this is a good one, I can't pass this up. Ole Miss, won 3 games last year against Memphis, Louisiana Tech, and Northwestern State. They lost the next 9 games against the rest of the SEC. I only wish that BYU had the chance to play 9 games against BCS opponents each year.

Last one, I promise: Arkansas- They played Troy, North Texas, Florida International, and Chattanooga on their way to winning 8 games. I hardly doubt that if BYU played those 4 bums, then split with 8 SEC teams that they'd get any recognition at all.

I could go on, but I'll spare you.

Now here is my beef with Notre Dame's schedule. Some years their schedule truly is very difficult, but other years this is what it looks like. (The number represents the number of wins that opponent had last year, and keep in mind that for most of those teams, that number includes a win over Notre Dame). The thing about Notre Dame's schedule that is so deceiving is that they play a few a lot of schools with a good name which makes it appear like it's tougher that it really is. By my account, they play 4 good to great teams, and 8 average to below average teams. I see BYU winning at least 9 games against this schedule (my prediction marked with the *)

SDSU 4 *
Michigan 9 * (mainly this year since UM is completely reloading and is probably going to struggle)
Michigan State 7 *
Purdue 8
Stanford 4 *
North Carolina 4 *
Washington 4 *
Pitts 5 *
Boston College 11
Navy 8 *
Syracuse 2 *
Southern Cal 11

TOTAL = 77

BYU's opponents had a combined 74 wins last year, and that number isn't inflated like Notre Dame's schedule due to the fact that we beat all of the teams we played minus 1, which takes a number out of each of their win columns.

So to sum up my rant; the BCS is a worthless. and the strength of schedule garbage doesn't hold water for the BCS schools. All you have to do for the media to treat you like a powerhouse is beat 4 weak nonconference games, win 3 conference games against the weaker teams in the conference, then win a bowl game and BAM! 8 wins, and you are legit. I don't want to hear any more strength of schedule crap. No team would fair well if they had to play, USC, Georgia, Oklahoma, West Virginia, OSU, and Virginia Tech every year. But sure, play two of those teams and then 10 mediocre teams and it's manageable. And my last point - BYU IS SICK. We could compete in any conference. The argument that BYU couldn't "hold it's own in a BCS conference" just doesn't hold water. Not only would we be entitled to play 4 of the weakest teams in all of football, but we'd only have to win 3 or 4 additional games against even the bottom tier BCS teams to "compete". Really doesn't sound all that difficult. Now obviously BYU wouldn't be satisfied with just "competing" so give us 9 chances at BCS teams every year and you'll see we'd be sitting in a similar place.